Global Growth Now Depends on AI, OECD Says
The OECD says the global economy is now leaning so heavily on artificial intelligence investment that the tech boom has become a critical pillar keeping growth afloat — and a potential point of failure if optimism fades.
- AI investment — not trade — is now the main force keeping global growth above expectations.
- The OECD expects the effects of tariffs to strike with a delay, slowing growth in 2026.
- The biggest risk is that a correction in AI could trigger financial stress across credit markets.
That dependency, the organization cautions, makes the current expansion unusually vulnerable. A sharp drop in AI-related activity would not only hurt tech giants but could spread across credit markets, consumer demand and business investment.
AI Is Doing the Heavy Lifting — Not Trade
According to the OECD, the story of 2025 is not that tariffs have been harmless. It’s that AI spending has been strong enough to drown out their effects for now. The construction of massive data centers, the surge in demand for specialized chips and the investment race among leading tech firms have collectively created an economic tailwind so large that it is distorting traditional forecasts.
Internal modeling cited by the organization shows that if the U.S. economy were stripped of AI-linked capital expenditure, its first-half performance would have been negative.
Tariffs Are a Delayed Shock, Not a Disappearing Threat
The organization stresses that Trump’s tariff regime does not show up immediately in GDP. Rather than causing instant damage, the levies work their way through corporate supply chains and consumer pricing with a lag. That is why growth continues to appear more resilient than expected.
The OECD expects the pressure to become more visible beginning late 2025 and continuing into 2026, with household consumption and business spending taking the brunt. It forecasts global output slowing to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.2% in 2025 as the cumulative weight of trade barriers reaches consumers and manufacturers.
Upgraded Forecasts Mask a Fragile Foundation
Despite the caution, the organization raised its 2025 and 2026 growth projections for the U.S. and euro area, and made modest upgrades for several other major economies. On paper, that looks like a strong global backdrop — but the OECD emphasizes that the improvements stem overwhelmingly from momentum in AI.
Economists say that creates a double-edged situation: AI is keeping the world economy on its feet, but stretched valuations in tech mean that an aggressive correction could trigger sudden deleveraging and forced asset sales.
Outlook Balances Optimism and Risk
The OECD describes the current moment as one of resilience built on instability. As long as AI investment continues at its current pace, global activity appears sturdy. But if credit tightens or enthusiasm cools, the same factor that is supporting growth could become the channel through which it unravels.
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