Fed Chair Hints at 2025 Rate Cut, Leaves July Decision Open

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that a rate cut remains likely before the end of 2025, but made it clear that no decision has been made for the upcoming July FOMC meeting.
Speaking at the ECB’s central banking forum, Powell said most Fed officials see a cut as appropriate later this year, though timing will depend on new economic data.
While inflation has stayed in line with expectations so far, Powell warned that price pressures could rise again in the summer. The Fed is awaiting June CPI and PPI data, due mid-July, before committing to any move.
Despite speculation from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that a July cut is possible, markets are largely pricing it out. CME FedWatch data shows an 80.9% chance the Fed will hold rates steady after its July 30 meeting. However, odds for a cut in September have jumped to 94%.
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Powell also brushed aside criticism from former President Donald Trump, who has called for aggressive rate cuts and is reportedly interviewing candidates to replace Powell next year. The Fed Chair declined to comment on his future, saying only that he’s focused on maintaining a strong economy through the transition.