Crypto Market Struggles but Hints at Late-2025 Rebound, According to Coinbase
Coinbase’s latest market analysis offers a cautious view of the crypto sector. According to the April 15 report, the total altcoin market cap has fallen sharply—from $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to around $950 billion by mid-April 2025.
On April 9, the market bottomed out at just $906.9 billion.
In addition, funding for crypto startups has plunged by over 50% since the boom years of 2021-2022. Coinbase attributes this downturn to macroeconomic stress, including rising trade tariffs and global monetary tightening.
David Duong, Coinbase’s Head of Research, these trends may signal the early stages of a new crypto winter. He pointed to waning investor sentiment and shrinking venture capital activity as major warning signs.
Bitcoin Stays Steady, But Broader Market Weakens
While altcoins have taken a significant hit, Bitcoin has shown relative stability. Still, even Bitcoin recently dropped below its 200-day moving average—a key technical signal of long-term market weakness.
Coinbase’s COIN50 index, which tracks top altcoins excluding Bitcoin, also fell below its 200-day average. This suggests that broad market softness may continue in the near term.
Sectors like meme coins, decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), and AI-based tokens have been especially volatile. These niche areas are now viewed as major drivers of market unpredictability.
Cautious Optimism for a Q3 Crypto Recovery
Despite current setbacks, Coinbase sees potential for recovery. The report projects that stabilization could occur by late Q2, with a rebound possible in Q3 2025.
However, Coinbase also warns that traditional bear market definitions may no longer apply in crypto. The firm recommends using advanced indicators—such as risk-adjusted returns and moving averages—to better understand market behavior.
Duong emphasized that Bitcoin’s role as a “store of value” makes it less effective as a broader market barometer. As the crypto ecosystem grows more complex, investors may need new tools and strategies.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
