Could a Surprise Fed Cut Send Bitcoin to New Highs?
Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range between $107K and $110K for nearly a week, but upcoming U.S. economic events could shake things loose.
All eyes are on two key dates: the release of Federal Reserve minutes on July 9 and the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 30. While most investors don’t expect a rate cut this month, falling inflation is fueling speculation that the Fed could change its stance.
Data from Truflation shows inflation in the U.S. has plunged from 2.27% to 1.70% in under two weeks—just ahead of the CPI release on July 15. If official numbers confirm this decline, markets could quickly reprice expectations, making a surprise rate cut more likely.
So far, traders are pricing in no change this month, with 95% of forecasts pointing to a hold. But if the Fed hints at shifting sentiment in the July 9 minutes and inflation data continues to cool, it may set the stage for a September cut—currently expected by 61% of market watchers.
Technically, Bitcoin shows signs of a potential breakout. A bullish pennant on the 4-hour chart suggests BTC could rise nearly 5% if it breaks above $108,547, potentially pushing toward a new all-time high near $113,913. Momentum indicators like RSI (currently 51) and the Awesome Oscillator are turning more favorable, signaling that bears are losing steam.
In short: If inflation data surprises to the downside and rate-cut speculation intensifies, Bitcoin could rally sharply. But if macro conditions stay unchanged, BTC may remain trapped in its current range through July.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
