Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle: Is 2025 Set to Soar?
Over the last decade, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strikingly consistent pattern: a four-year market cycle that comprises three years of growth followed by one year of correction.
In a tweet shared on May 5, 2025, Axel Adler Jr., a verified analyst affiliated with CryptoQuant, highlights this repeating rhythm and suggests that 2025 could be another breakout year for Bitcoin.
Decoding the Chart: A Decade of Bitcoin’s Yearly Percentage Changes
The chart, titled Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Change, visualizes Bitcoin’s annual performance from 2011 to 2025 (YTD). Green bars indicate years of positive price change, while pink bars denote negative performance years.
Some key highlights:
- Bullish Years: Bitcoin posted strong gains in most years, notably in 2013 (+5,642%), 2017 (+1,287%), and 2020 (+299%).
- Bearish Years: Major corrections occurred in 2014 (-58.7%), 2018 (-72.2%), and 2022 (-64.4%), each following three years of gains.
- Recent Trend: After a harsh correction in 2022, Bitcoin rebounded with +156.9% in 2023 and +153.7% in 2024, suggesting 2025 could follow as the third bullish year in this cycle.
Each bar is labeled with a number (1 to 3) during bullish streaks, visually reinforcing the 3-up, 1-down cadence.
The Power of Holders and Cycles
According to Axel, 52% of Bitcoin’s supply is held by long-term holders—investors who are less concerned with short-term volatility and more focused on long-term gains. This large proportion of holders contributes to the predictable nature of Bitcoin’s price cycles, reinforcing the concept of the four-year pattern.
He emphasizes that while blockchain metrics and market analytics offer immense value, price behavior still obeys simple, macro patterns visible to those willing to zoom out.
Looking Ahead: A Bullish 2025?
If the four-year trend holds, 2025 could be the third consecutive year of gains, completing another cycle before a potential correction in 2026. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the consistency of this pattern provides investors and analysts with a compelling narrative to watch.
As Axel succinctly puts it: “4 years of growth, one year of correction. 2025 🚀”
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
