Bitcoin Rangebound Amid Fed Caution, Xi-Trump Talks, and Q3 Risk Triggers
In its latest market note, QCP, Asia's leading digital asset partner, highlighted a cautious yet risk-on sentiment sweeping through global markets ahead of key economic and geopolitical events.
A surprise rise in U.S. job openings has lifted risk appetite, pushing the S&P 500 near the psychologically critical 6,000 level. All eyes now turn to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could validate the Federal Reserve’s narrative of a resilient labor market, likely keeping interest rates on hold.
Bitcoin Stalls at $105K as Market Awaits Xi-Trump Dialogue
On the geopolitical front, markets are adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the highly anticipated Xi-Trump talks. For Bitcoin, this has translated into low volatility and tight trading ranges, with front-end options vol slipping below 40%. BTC continues to hover around the familiar $105K level, with traders showing little directional conviction.
QCP notes that spot market activity is subdued, and government bond futures in China have hit their lowest volumes since February, suggesting broader risk aversion and defensive positioning across asset classes.
BTC Derivatives: Light Positioning, Long-Vega Trades, and $130K Calls
In derivatives, Bitcoin is rangebound, with normalized skew indicating a lack of strong sentiment in either direction. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened, especially from mid- to long-dated maturities — a pattern that mirrors the broader decline in VIX.
This environment has fueled opportunistic long-vega strategies, particularly in September-dated options. Notably, $130K call options were lifted at 47v, signaling pockets of bullish interest as Q3 approaches.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
