Bitcoin Approaches $109k: Short-Term Holder Sentiment Shifts
As Bitcoin approaches its all-time high of $109k, market excitement is beginning to resurface. A key tool to track this shift in sentiment is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio, which helps gauge the mood of active investors.
This metric proved especially insightful during the correction on April 7, when it dropped to 0.03, signaling that nearly all STH-held supply was underwater. This low was recorded as BTC hit its $76k price floor. Since then, the ratio has surged above 9.0, meaning more than 90% of STH supply is now back in profit.
High Sentiment Could Signal Market Risk
While a ratio above 9.0 indicates strong profit for short-term holders, it can also signal heightened market risk. As more investors find themselves in profit, there is an increased chance of profit-taking, which could lead to a local top if new demand slows down.
As long as the STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio remains well above the equilibrium level of 1.0, the bullish momentum is likely to persist. However, any prolonged drop below this threshold could indicate a shift in market strength and suggest the potential for trend exhaustion.
Profit-Taking Surge, But Room for More
With short-term holders sitting on significant unrealized gains, the market may see increased profit-taking. Monitoring the behavior of this group is essential to identifying when demand exhaustion might approach, especially near a potential local top.
The recent surge in STH Realized Profit, now almost +3 standard deviations above its 90-day average, reflects a notable increase in profit realization. Historically, during previous rallies towards Bitcoin’s all-time high, this metric has reached over +5 standard deviations, signaling that much stronger profit-taking pressure is often necessary to counteract the inflow of fresh demand.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
