Bitcoin: 2 Reasons Why The Price Isn’t Exploding Like Before
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally in this market cycle, the behavior of the crypto market has been surprisingly subdued — a sharp contrast to the frenzied peaks of past bull runs.
According to a new analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, macroeconomic factors and shifting market structure are creating a calmer, more measured growth phase for BTC.
Where’s the FOMO?
Dan highlights a key deviation from historical patterns: the lack of speculative capital and short-term participants. Typically, previous cycles featured a surge in new retail investors and a flood of short-term holdings. Today, that’s noticeably absent.
“In past cycles, the market usually heats up quickly with strong upsides and a large influx of short-term holders,” Dan said. “But this time, the percentage of BTC held from one week to one month is significantly lower than before.”
He attributes this to both macro tightening and the institutionalization of the crypto market.
Tighter Liquidity, Slower Moves
The post-COVID boom was fueled by near-zero interest rates and record levels of quantitative easing. But that era has ended. Dan explains that we’re now in a high-interest rate environment with tighter liquidity and less free-flowing capital.
“Capital flows are no longer free, and large-scale swings have become more difficult to achieve,” he noted.
As a result, price action has become slower, more deliberate, and less driven by hype — an environment that many market veterans may find unfamiliar.
Institutions Now Call the Shots
One of the biggest shifts this cycle has been the influence of institutional capital, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Unlike retail investors, institutions tend to buy cautiously and in stages, avoiding the wild volatility that characterized earlier cycles.
“Individual investors used to drive the momentum,” Dan said. “Now, with institutional capital leading the way, we are seeing a more controlled, ladder-like rise in Bitcoin price, rather than the rapid, emotional rallies of the past.”
This shift is also visible in on-chain data, where whale inflows and ETF allocations dominate, while retail participation lags.
A New Kind of Cycle
Despite the lack of euphoria, Dan doesn’t believe the current market action suggests a looming crash. Instead, he predicts a longer, more complex cycle — one that may extend well into 2025.
“ETF inflows are still ongoing, and if the macro environment gradually eases, we could see meaningful trends emerge in 2025,” he said.
While it may not feel like previous bull markets, this new phase could offer more sustainable growth — and for many, that’s exactly what crypto needs.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a "detective-like" mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
