Analyst Warns Bitcoin Demand Cooling – Is $100K Next?
Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning to some traders, but analyst Axel Adler believes the correction remains contained and key support levels are still holding.
Adler noted that Bitcoin has only dropped about 8% from its local peak, a move he considers relatively modest given the market’s volatility.
He highlighted two critical supports: the 111-day moving average near $109,600 and the realized price for short-term holders at $106,800. Together, these levels form a demand-heavy zone between $107,000 and $110,000, which Adler views as a crucial range where price stabilization and renewed buying could emerge.
The analyst also drew attention to Bitcoin’s “visible demand” metric, which tracks the net change in holdings by younger coins moved within the past year. Positive values suggest growing active circulation, while negative readings imply coins are aging into long-term storage.
Currently, Adler said the indicator is still positive but has slipped to 30,000 BTC, showing demand remains but momentum is cooling. A move closer to zero, he cautioned, would signal weakening participation from newer market entrants.
With Bitcoin hovering above its support range, Adler suggested that traders should keep a close eye on demand dynamics, as the balance between fresh inflows and long-term holding could determine the next major move.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios
Bullish case: If demand strengthens within the $107K–$110K support zone and fresh inflows from short-term holders resume, Bitcoin could rebound quickly toward $120K. A breakout above that level could open the door for a retest of $130K.
Base case: Bitcoin consolidates within the high-demand range, oscillating between $107K and $115K as buyers and sellers balance out. This would allow the market to reset momentum before its next decisive move.
Bearish case: If support at $107K fails and the visible demand metric drops closer to zero, Bitcoin could slide toward $102K–$104K. A deeper correction could test the psychological $100K level, which would mark the strongest downside move since early 2025.
With Bitcoin sitting at a critical crossroads, Adler suggested traders keep a close eye on support levels and on-chain demand, as these signals could dictate whether the market stabilizes or faces further losses.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets - crypto first, then everything else. It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn't fully understand it - so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can't properly understand one without the other. What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it's happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline - price up, price down, here's a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn? He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University - not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That's probably why he hasn't stopped.
