90% Recession Risk? Top Economist Warns 2025 Could Mirror Great Depression
Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the U.S. is almost certainly heading into a recession this year
According to him the odds are around staggering 90%.
That’s way beyond the 40–60% estimates from big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. Speaking to David Lin on April 13, the Johns Hopkins professor didn’t hold back.
“I think it’s over 90%. A recession is coming. Sales drop, profits drop, earnings drop. It’s that simple,” Hanke said.
Wall Street Is Too Optimistic, Hanke Says
S&P 500 earnings expectations have already dropped from 15% to 10%. But Hanke believes even zero growth or negative returns are more realistic.
He’s not alone—JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that earnings could fall flat or worse in the coming months.
Echoes of 1930: The Tariff Trap?
Hanke also drew a chilling parallel to the Great Depression. He said today’s economic playbook—particularly the tariff hikes—reminds him of the Smoot-Hawley Act, which triggered an 83% stock market crash from 1930 to 1932.
With Trump’s tariff plans already spooking markets, Hanke warned history could be repeating.
“Bad policy turned a recession into a depression. We’re flirting with the same mistake,” he said.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
